Gold and silver surged to record highs amid tariff wars, geopolitics and dollar weakness, with extreme volatility. Crude holds a conflict premium near $66. Natural gas rebounded on colder forecasts and lower output. Copper rallies on AI-green demand. Global equities mostly flat; India slightly negative at market open today globally.

GOLD
Gold has entered a parabolic phase, hitting a peak of $5,598 on Thursday before retracing to approximately $5,442 early Friday. This bullish momentum is being fueled by a “perfect storm” of drivers: escalating tariff wars, geopolitical instability, and robust demand from both ETFs and central banks. Tensions are particularly high in the Middle East; despite mediation efforts by regional governments, a diplomatic breakthrough remains elusive. With the U.S. bolstering its military presence and the Trump administration threatening military action absent a new deal, the geopolitical risk premium remains firmly priced into the metal.

SILVER
Mirroring the explosive movement in gold, silver recently rocketed to an unprecedented all-time high of $121.64, though it is currently taking a breather as it hovers just below the critical $118 resistance level at $117.99. This buying frenzy was ignited by a perfect storm of geopolitical anxiety and a weakening U.S. Dollar, with the Dollar Index (DXY) recently plunging to the $96 mark. From a technical perspective, the $118 threshold is now the primary pivot point: if silver can decisively clear and hold above this level, it is positioned for a run toward $120, with a further extension potentially targeting $125.

Precious metal markets are currently riding a wave of extreme volatility. On Thursday alone, Gold experienced a dramatic “V-shaped” move, plummeting to a low of $5,097 before a fierce late-day recovery carried it back up to $5,379.50. Silver followed a similar scripfuelfueledgeopoliticalsell-off to a low of $106.84 before buyers stepped back in. This level of turbulence, where prices swing by hundreds of dollars in a single session, highlights the “tug-of-war” between profit-taking at record highs and the intense safe-haven demand fuelfueledgeopolitical tensions. For investors, these wide price gaps serve as a clear reminder that while the long-term trend remains strong, the ride is becoming increasingly bumpy, making a cautious and disciplined approach essential.

CRUDE
WTI crude oil is holding steady on its upward path, hitting a peak of $66.48 before settling back toward $65.69 during Friday’s early trading. The market is currently hitting a bit of a ceiling at $66.40; traders are watching this level closely, as a clean break above it could clear the way for a run toward $68. Much of this momentum is being driven by the friction between the U.S. and Iran. As the U.S. shifts more military assets into the Middle East, the market is bracing for the possibility of direct action, keeping a “conflict premium” baked into every barrel. Interestingly, the rally is starting to take on a life of its own, what analysts call “reflexive” behaviour—where the rising prices themselves are attracting new buyers, as the memory of recent lows begins to fade.

NATURAL GAS
Natural gas prices caught a strong second wind, jumping 2.68% to settle at ₹352 after a rough slide earlier in the week. This rebound was sparked by the latest EIA report, which revealed. Beyond the immediate numbers, Mother Nature is also playing a role; forecasts suggest below-normal temperatures are here to stay for a while, which is expected to keep heaters running and gas storage shrinking. Adding more fuel to the bullish case, the EIA recently tightened its outlook for 2026 production, trimming its daily forecast from 109.11 bcf down to 107.4 bcfhe EIA recently tightened its outlook for 2026 production, trimming its daily forecast from 109.11 bcf down to 107.4 bcf. With demand holding steady and supply looking a bit leaner, the path of least resistance for prices currently seems to be upward.

COPPER
Copper prices have been on a tear, breaking past the ₹1,400 mark and hitting a peak of ₹1,411. It’s been a wild ride for the metals market lately as investors try to make sense of this speculative rally. Copper is leading the pack because of a simple but powerful story: we’re betting on massive long-term demand, but we’re facing a supply wall after decades of not building enough new mines. It’s the “AI and Green” combo acting as a catalyst to take the prices higher. The sheer amount of copper needed for massive new data centres, AI infrastructure, and EV charging stations is staggering. On top of that, a weakening Dollar and constant tariff threats from the Trump administration have traders scrambling for “hard assets.” In an uncertain world, investors are treating copper like a safe haven with a high-tech twist.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET PERFORMANCE

• Dowjones down  by 0.23%
• NASDAQ down by 0.70%
• FTSE up by 0.17%
• NIKKEI up  by 0.15%
• Hang Seng  up by 0.50%

European and US markets are trading with relatively flat momentum, though Europe is trying to hold onto a slight positive bias. Closer to home, the GIFT Nifty is currently down about 0.23%, signalling the Indian market might be looking at a flat to slightly negative start.

BY RMoney Research

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