EQUITY RESEARCH (10th Oct 2026)

Nifty after eight consecutive weeks of negative closing finally managed to take some breather and settled the week with a gain of 98 points from previous weekly close of 22,421.95.The slight positivity in the market was supported by easing crude oil prices and positive business update. Further, the RBI in its monetary policy in line with other central banks raised the REPO rate by 25 basis points, to 5.50% and shift its policy stance to tightening added to concerns over borrowing costs, although the upward revision in the FY27 GDP growth forecast provided a positive signal on economic resilience, thus providing some support to the Nifty with hit the weekly low of 22,179.Further with INR weakening and continuous outflow by FII weighed heavily on the index.

RBI raises interest rate by 25 Bps

The Reserve Bank of India’s rate-setting panel voted in to increase the benchmark lending rate by 25 Bps, lifting it from 5.25% to 5.50%. This marked the central bank’s first rate hike in almost three years, accompanied by a shift away from a neutral approach toward one of calibrated tightening. Alongside this move, the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate climbed to 5.25%, whereas both the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) and the bank rate held steady at 5.75%.

World Bank raises India’s GDP Projection

Amid sturdy local demand alongside solid gains in consumer spending, capital expenditure, and outbound trade, the World Bank upgraded India’s FY27 economic growth estimate from 6.6% to 7.1%. In the first quarter of FY27, both exports and investments expanded by roughly 12%, with the services sector continuing to power the bulk of domestic economic activity.

INR performance and FII

INR continued to weaken for the second consecutive trading week and has touched the high of ₹96.85 against a dollar. However, higher crude oil prices kept INR weak before the green bucks. INR has breached the crucial resistance of 96.97, the recent high seen on 18 May, 2026 , it may further depreciate against USD to the level of ₹98.
For the month of October till, FII’s have already made net sales of ₹39.778.51 crores. FII continued to withdraw money from the Indian market from July 2025, with no single month equity purchase by FII, thus weighing heavily on the index.

For the week ahead

Domestically, the index would get a direction,taking cues from the performance of INR along with inflation numbers both retail and wholesale to be released this week. Further investors would take cue from movement of Crude oil prices which continued to over $100. A further key economic event with a list of US key economic data, like Housing data, retail and wholesale inflation number, would be released giving further cues on US economic health, thus giving direction to the market.

NIFTY WEEKLY

Nifty 50 traded with negative momentum, for the ninth consecutive week,  and has plunged below its crucial mark of 22,250, to touch the weekly low of 22,179, before settling the week at 22,520.45, gaining 98.50 points on weekly basis. RSI also managed to stay in the normal zone pushing itself out of the oversold zone to the level of 32.74, thus giving some upside momentum to the index. Thus, the index must sustain the momentum and continue to trade above the mark of 22,500 , breaching the weekly high of 22,776.10, would only propel upside in the index to reach for the next upside destination of 22,800/23,000 level. But falling below 22,500 could make the index weak for the downside destination of 22,250/22,100.

BANK NIFTY WEEKLY

After four consecutive weeks of falling, Bank Nifty traded with positive momentum and managed to gain 805.90 points on a weekly basis to settle the week ended on 9th October at the mark of 55,256,65.

Further, the RSI also rose to  43.23 hinting strength in the index which may further push the index towards the level of 55,620. Thus for the index to further upside must trade above the level of 55,600 mark to reach the next upside destination of 56,500 level. However, if the index breaks the weekly low of 54,370.60 , then we may see the index slipping to the level of 55870-54,200.

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