EQUITY RESEARCH (25th July 2026)

The Nifty 50 traded with negative bias and lost its ground to touch the weekly low of 23,606.30, before settling the week at the level of 23,767.45, down by 0,43% on weekly basis. Sluggishness in the index was witnessed amid ongoing geopolitical tension with intensifying tension in the middle east that pushed crude oil prices above the mark of $90. Continuous weakness in the Indian Rupee and selling by FII along with selling pressure in the banking sector pushed the index in the red zone, giving up all the last weekly gains.  

Domestic economic Number

Despite India’s foreign exchange reserves expanding by $964 million to $675.157 billion in mid-July 2026, domestic business growth faltered. Driven down by inflation-hit demand, private sector output recorded its slowest expansion since March 2022, with the HSBC Flash India Composite PMI slipping to 54.3 in July from June’s 57.1.

USDINR weakens 

INR for the fourth consecutive week continued to weaken and reached the level of ₹96.67, before settling the week at the level of 96.5520. Further if INR continues to trade above the 96.50 mark for the coming, it may touch the mark of 96.97, recent high.

FII’s selling

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been continuous net sellers since July 2025, failing to turn net buyers in any month since. Month-to-date, FIIs have pulled out another ₹11,728.95 crore. On an annual scale, this persistent selling trend traces back to 2021, with 2026 marking a record high, as net sales reached ₹357,472.78 crore in just the first six months.

For the week ahead

Domestically, the index would get a direction, taking cues from the performance of INR along with FII’s, which continued to remain sellers. Further investors would take cue from Middle east tension along with prices of the crude oil. A key event would be the FED interest rate decision due on 28-29 July, that would provide further direction to the index. On the economic numbers front, Indian Industrial production would also be reported on 28 July, 2026, giving cue on Indian economic health.

NIFTY WEEKLY

Nifty 50 traded with negative momentum and index fell to touch the low of 23,606.60, slipping below the middle band of the bollinger band at 23,741.14. RSI is also seen slipping down to 44.61 from 55 recorded last week. Thus, the index is expected to stay weak and touch the level of 23,600, if it fails to gain momentum and reach for 23,800. Plunging below 23,600 would further make the index weak towards the mark of 23,450.Further upside in the index would be possible, if the index manages to trade and sustain above the mark of 23,800 then only 24,000 would be possible.

BANK NIFTY WEEKLY

Bank Nifty traded with negative momentum but index lost 3.12% on weekly basis to settle at 56,693.50, plunging below its crucial support of 57,120. However, with RSI pointing downward to the  mark of 50.21 from previous week’s number of 58.39, is hinting weakness, but possibility of upside can’t be ruled out. Thus for the index to further upside the index must pull itself  above the mark of 57,100 then must reach for the next upside destination of 58,230 level. However, if the index breaks the weekly low of 56,023, then we may see the index sleeping to the level of 55,540.

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