EQUITY RESEARCH (19th September 2026)

Nifty extended for the seventh consecutive trading week, continuing to bleed, with no signs of recovery. The benchmark index has fallen below the mark 23,500  and closed the session at 23,346.40, with a weekly loss of 0.22%. Nifty fell amid rising crude oil prices which continued to hover over the mark of $100, along with rising global bond yield and concern over rising US inflation. Further rate hikes of 25 bps by FED, ECB and Bank of Japan, also weighed on the index. Amid international turmoil, the US-Iran war’s lack of resolution also had an impact on the index. But with Saudi Arabia coming up with alternative routes weighed on the oil prices and plunged below 100, which supported the index in the last trading day of the week, helping the index to recover from the weekly low of 23,116.10.

India’s wholesale inflation

India released its wholesale inflation number for the month of August, which was recorded at 9.92% on YoY against July month’s number of 9.78%. The rise in inflation number is attributed to higher manufacturing, food and fuel prices. Headline inflation however stayed within RBI’s target range of 4^-6% at 4.82% in the month of August. Further weak rupee also elevated the inflation amid  crude oil prices which remain over $100.

FED and BoJ rises interest rate by 25 Bps

The FED rate has raised the interest rate by 25 basis , first time after 2023 July, amid ongoing energy driven price inflation, which is keeping  US inflation above the threshold of 2%. Taking the same path, with all countries facing the heat of oil prices, the Bank of Japan also raised its interest rate by 25 bps, taking its interest rate to 1.25%,the highest level since 1995.

INR performance and FII

INR continued to weaken for the second straight week against US dollar amid hike in interest rate by FED by 25 bps, along with rising crude oil prices, that will weigh heavily on the Current Account deficit of the Indian economy. INR has breached the crucial resistance of 95.80 , thus it may further depreciate against USD to the level of ₹96.40

For the month of September till, FII’s made net sales of ₹7040.94 crores. FII continued to withdraw money from Indian market from July 2025, with no single month equity purchase by FII.

For the week ahead

Domestically, the index would get a direction, taking cues from the performance of INR along with PMI data  to be released this week. Further investors would take cue from escalating Middle East tension which is keeping oil prices elevated above the mark of $100. A further key economic event is the summit of President Trump and President Xi due next week in Washington.

NIFTY WEEKLY

 For the seventh consecutive trading week, Nifty 50 traded with negative momentum and has plunged below its crucial mark of 23,650 and closed the week at 23,346.40. RSI has also plunged to the mark of 39.55, indicating pressure in the index. Index   failed to to pull itself above the mark of 23,650, thus, index remained under pressure for the week and it may further weaken to fall to the mark of 23,000, if it breaches the support of 23,250. Upside in the index can be obtained only above the sustained trading above the mark of 23,650.

BANK NIFTY WEEKLY

Bank Nifty traded with negative momentum for the second consecutive trading week and the index  plunged by 0.44% on a weekly basis, falling to a weekly low of 55,794.75, a crucial level, before settling the week at 56,358.70. Additionally, the RSI has dropped below the level of 50 to 46.98, thus indicating pressure on the index which may further push the index towards the mark of 55,600. Therefore, in order for the index to move higher, must trade above the level of 56,500 to reach the level of 57,560, which is the next upside destination. However, if the index breaks the weekly low of 55,800, then we may see the index can drop to the level of 54,255.

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