Nifty 50, maintained its upward trajectory for the fourth week in a row, advancing 0.89% to lock in a two-month peak of 24,270.85. This optimistic market run was amid a mix of international and domestic catalysts, chief among them being a massive turnaround in the technology sector. The Nifty IT index spiked by more than 4.6% in just one day after disappointing US manufacturing data further sparking hopes for an upcoming cut in global interest rates. Further fall in crude prices also acted as a catalyst in taking the prices upwards, as Brent crude dipped to the $70–$72 range following peaceful US-Iran talks in Doha concerning the Strait of Hormuz, directly lowering India’s import bills and improving the profitability of local fuel retailers. Ultimately, Nifty50’s gain, paired with a 10% plunge in the India VIX to a multi-month low of 11.80, signaled that anxiety has vanished from Dalal Street as traders aggressively embrace risk once again.

Domestic Economic Numbers
India’s factories and industrial hubs are showing a bit of a mixed bag lately. On one hand, the latest Index of Industrial Production (IIP) numbers show that industrial output actually picked up speed, growing at 5.1% in May compared to 4.9% in April amid a big jump in power generation and solid, widespread manufacturing across the board. However, things cooled down slightly moving into June. The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 54.2 from May’s 55.0. While any number above 50 still means the sector is growing, this marks its second-slowest expansion rate since the middle of 2022. Meanwhile, looking at the government’s balance sheet, the fiscal deficit for the first two months of the new financial year (April and May) hit 1.62 lakh crore rupees. That means the government has already used up 9.6% of its spending target for the entire year, a pretty steep jump compared to the same period last year, when it had only touched 0.8% of its budget.

For the week ahead
Domestically, the index would get a direction, taking cues from the performance of INR along with FII’s, which continued to be net sellers. For the month of June, FII’s made net sales of ₹49,028.63 crores and for the month till date, it has already made sales of ₹96.99 crores .along with the same, performance of Ruppee, along with FOMIC minutes to be released on 8th July, would give direction to the index.

NIFTY WEEKLY

Nifty 50 traded with positive momentum and index managed to touch a weekly high of  24378.15 and. The index managed to sustain the upside momentum and settled at 24,270.85. Further upside in the index would be possible, if the index manages to trade and sustain above the mark of 24,350 then only 24,600 would be possible, Otherwise, if the index fails below the mark of 24,350 then 24,000 yet again be the next downside target for the index.

BANK NIFTY WEEKLY

Bank Nifty traded with sideways momentum and index failed to breach previous week’s high of   58,706.05. Index however couldn’t sustain momentum and plunged to settle at 57,938.05 losing 0.16% from previous weekly close of 58,177.05. For the index to go further upside, it must sustain above the mark of 58,177 then must reach for the next upside destination of 59,500 level. For Downside it must falls below the mark of 57,100.

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