EQUITY RESEARCH (26th Sep 2026)

Nifty extended for the eighth consecutive trading week, with no signs of recovery, it continued to bleed. The benchmark index has fallen below the mark 23,250  and closed the session at 23,140.50 with a weekly loss of 0.88%. Amid rising crude oil prices which continued to hover over the mark of $95, along with rising global bond yield and concern over rising US inflation driven by energy prices. Further expectation of another rate hike of 25 bps by FED in October, also weighed on the index. With no conclusion from the US-Iran war also weighed on the index, amid geopolitical tension. Rising bond yield to multi year high along with dollar index reaching above the mark of 101, make investors cautious, and the index failed to gain momentum. Index failing to rise above 23.150 would continue to make index weaker, with FII’s continuously on the selling side and INR weakening also weighed heavily on the index, thus it may further plunge towards the mark of 23,000, in the absence of any upside momentum above the mark of 23,250.

India’s GDP Expectation

S&P global rating index revised Indian GDP growth of FY27 higher to 7% from earlier projection of 6.6% amid stronger than expected industrial activity, healthy consumption, robust good export and services and higher government investment. Further for the year Fy28 and FY the rating agency estimated growth projection at 7.25%  and 7%, respectively.

INR performance and FII

INR traded with sideways momentum and managed to gain momentum but sustain previous highs of 96.100, and settled the week at 95.8020. However, higher crude oil prices kept INR weak before the green bucks. INR has breached the crucial resistance of 95.80 , thus it may further depreciate against USD to the level of ₹96.40, if it sustains above the given levelFor the month of September till, FII’s made net sales of ₹18,530.97 crores. FII continued to withdraw money from Indian market from July 2025, with no single month equity purchase by FII

For the week ahead

Domestically, the index would get a direction, taking cues from the performance of INR along with PMI data  and Indian industrial production on 28th September to be released this week. Further investors would take cue from escalating Middle East tension which is keeping oil prices elevated above the mark of $95. A further key economic event with a list of US key economic data, like ADP non farm employment change, Core PCE price index, unemployment claims, non farm payroll would be released giving further cues on US economic health.

NIFTY WEEKLY

Nifty 50 traded with negative momentum,  for the eighth consecutive week,  and has plunged below its crucial mark of 23,250 and closed the week at 23,140.50, down by -0.88%. RSI has also plunged to the mark of 37, indicating pressure in the index. If Nifty fails to pull itself above the mark of 23,250, thus, the index is expected to remain under pressure for the week and it may further weaken to fall to the mark of 23,000.  If it gains momentum and manages to break through and sustains above 23,250, then only the nifty would be able to reach 23,450.

BANK NIFTY WEEKLY

For the fourth consecutive trading week, Bank Nifty traded with negative momentum; the index  plunged by 1.38% on a weekly basis, falling to a weekly low of 55,341.20, a crucial level, before settling the week at 55,580.40. Further, the RSI has fallen below the mark of 43 from previous week’s number of 46.98, hinting pressure in the index which may further push the index towards the level of 54,800. Thus for the index to further upside must trade above the level of 55,600 mark to reach the next upside destination of 56,500 level. However, if the index breaks the weekly low of 55,341, then we may see the index slipping to the level of 55870-54,200.

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