EQUITY RESEARCH (5th September 2026)

Nifty extended its weakness for the sixth consecutive trading week with no signs of recovery, index has fallen below the mark 24,000 and closed the session at 23,897, with a weekly loss of 1.15%. Nifty fell as investors remained cautious and volatility in the market. Market did get some support to elevate from weekly low amid positive GDP numbers for Q1 FY 26-27 which was recorded at 7.8%  beating  the RBI’s estimate of 7%. But rising volatility amid rising crude oil prices amid the escalating US-Iran tension with no conclusion or agreement yet met. Strength in Rupee which strengthened to 94.48, also couldn’t provide support to the index.

India’ GDP Q1  FY27 grew by 7.8%

India’s real GDP grew by  7.8% in Q1 FY27), beating estimates of  the Reserve Bank of India’s 7%growth rate. Real Gross Value Added grew by 8.2%, with manufacturing and financial services becoming the key engines for India’s growth story. The stronger-than-expected growth points to resilient domestic economic activity, but investors have their eyes on the crude oil prices which has once again hit the level of $95, bringing back the inflationary concern  and geopolitical risks.

Indian HSBC PMI  and INR Performance

India’s manufacturing sector registered its slowest expansion in five years as the HSBC Manufacturing PMI dipped to 52.8 in August 2026, down from July’s 53.5. While output and new orders maintained an upward trajectory, growth decelerated to multi-year lows due to sluggish market conditions and cooling demand. International sales similarly reflected this broader momentum loss, expanding at a gentler pace than the previous month.

For the second week in a row, the INR strengthened and hit ₹94.28, but it ended the week marginally higher at ₹94.48. However, the INR may strengthen to ₹93.60 if it drops below the ₹94.27 barrier, but it may weaken to 95.61 if it rises beyond the ₹95.42 mark.

For the week ahead

Domestically, the index would receive guidance based on the INR’s performance. The ongoing tension in the Middle East, which is driving oil prices above $95, would serve as a signal to other investors. The Fed’s interest rate decision and the US inflation data that will be revealed this week are two more significant economic events that will provide investors with more clues regarding the direction of the market.

NIFTY WEEKLY

 Nifty 50 traded with negative momentum for the fifth consecutive trading session and has plunged below its crucial mark of 24,000 and closed the week at 23,897.70. The RSI has fallen below the 50-point threshold, signaling index pressure. Further index has plunged below the mark of 15 EMA at 24,134. Thus, until, index manages to pull itself above the mark of 24,150, the index is expected to remain weak. Fall below 23,800 would take the index towards the mark of 23,650. Upside in the index can be obtained only above the sustained trading above the mark of 24,150 for the upside destination of 24300.

BANK NIFTY WEEKLY

Bank Nifty traded with negative momentum and the index fell below the mark of 57,500, a crucial level.Additionally, the RSI is heading downward to 52 from the previous week’s value of 52.91, suggesting that there may be some pressure on the index, which might push it even closer to 56,850. Therefore, in order for the index to rise further, it must first drag itself above the 58,000 line and then reach the 58,640 level, which is the next upside destination. On the other hand, the index can fall to 56,600 if it breaks the weekly low of 56,823.

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