GOLD

COMEX gold prices dipped slightly by 0.12% to trade near 4,537, retracing from an earlier peak of 4,570. This initial price surge was driven by optimism surrounding potential diplomatic breakthroughs between the US and Iran, particularly after President Donald Trump indicated that negotiations were entering their
concluding phases, raising prospects for the reopening of the crucial Strait of Hormuz. However, these gains were capped by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve; recent meeting minutes revealed that the majority of policymakers still favor a potential interest rate hike later this year if inflation persists above their 2% benchmark.

SILVER

COMEX silver prices traced back from the high morning high of $76.95210, and are currently seen trading near $75.32. Though prices saw some upside as Donald Trump hinted at the final lap of negotiations on the US-Iran war, which may further hint towards the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sooner. But prices retraced on higher US bond yields and a strengthening dollar index. Also, US Fed minutes hinting at rising interest rates, if inflation continued to remain above 2%, weighed on silver prices.

ENERGY

WTI crude oil plunged by 4.76% on Wednesday, but prices are currently seen near $99. Softness in the prices is attributed to the possibility of reopening of the Strait of Hormuz at the earliest, as President Trump hinted at some positive movement in US-Iran peace talks. But prices gained momentum in the wee hours of the Thursday session amid bargain buy-in from the lower levels. Thus, if prices continue to trade
above $100, we may see price retouching $102; only a fall below $95 would trigger further weakness.

BASE METAL

MCX copper prices gained momentum and managed to cross the mark of Rs1350, amid expectations of resolution on the US-Iran war along with ongoing supportive fundamentals. Thus, if prices sustain above Rs1350, Rs1380 would be the first upside destination. Further fuel in AI stocks also pushed copper prices up.

Evening Commodity Trading Guide 21st May 2026 

Gold Technical Outlook

MCX Gold (Jun): The domestic June contract continues to navigate a defined consolidation range, keeping its short-term sentiments in line with COMEX. The technical boundary is firmly set, with overhead resistance positioned at ₹1,59,800 – ₹1,61,000. On the lower end, the crucial demand floor is located between the support zone of ₹1,58,800 – ₹1,57,600. Traders should practice strict discipline around these ranges, as weakness in prices may continue after breaching support zones, potentially opening the door for an acceleration in short-term selling.

COMEX Gold (Spot): Spot gold is locked in a Mixed Sentiment profile as market participants weigh competing macroeconomic data against localized physical demand. This range-bound behavior leaves immediate technical resistance established near $4,530 – $4,570. Downside risks appear well-insulated for the moment, with key support levels holding reliably near $4,490 – $4,450.

Overall View: Because the yellow metal is currently lacking an aggressive directional trigger, avoiding chasing overextended positions in the middle of the value band remains the most prudent path. Short-term momentum players should focus on clear risk-defined parameters near range extremes. For strategic portfolio builders, this non-linear phase represents a constructive accumulation window; long-term investors can consider buying in small amounts on every dip inside the core support bands to balance out their entry costs effectively.

Silver Technical Outlook

MCX Silver (Jul): The domestic July contract has dropped back into an established consolidation channel, keeping near-term sentiments in line with COMEX. Immediate relief rallies are facing a well-defined wall of sellers, leaving technical resistance standing at ₹2,72,500 – ₹2,76,500. On the flip side, dynamic downside safety nets are expected near the support zone of ₹2,68,000 – ₹2,63,000. Caution is highly warranted near these baselines, as a clean breakdown could trigger trailing stops, meaning weakness in prices may continue after breaching support zones.

COMEX Silver (Spot): Spot silver has drifted into a Mixed Sentiment profile as market participants balance industrial demand expectations against near-term macro headwinds. The white metal is encountering prominent overhead friction, with resistance levels placed at $76 – $77 acting as a near-term cap. Meanwhile, localized buying interest continues to defend the structural floors, keeping major supports likely around $74 – $73.

Overall View: The silver market is currently content rotating within an established technical range, meaning patience and strict boundary discipline will yield the best risk-to-reward ratio. Shorter-term traders should protect trading capital by avoiding over-leveraged positions during intraday swings. On a macro level, this corrective phase offers a healthy entry window; long-term investors can consider buying in small amounts on every dip within the major demand pockets to steadily accumulate quality exposure.

Crude Oil Technical Outlook

MCX Crude Oil (Jun): Moving cleanly in line with International NYMEX Spot prices, the domestic June contract exhibits a highly constructive chart footprint. Intraday advances are currently testing a strong line of sellers, with technical resistance mapped at ₹9,800 – ₹10,000, while solid underlying floor defense is waiting near the support levels of ₹9,650 – ₹9,450. Chart configurations indicate the energy asset may see an upmove after sustaining above the resistance zone, potentially unlocking a fresh directional extension.

NYMEX WTI Crude Oil (Spot): WTI Crude Oil has entered a clear Sideways to Bullish Sentiment phase as supply-side dynamics and tightening global stock projections fuel buyer aggression. Relief rallies face immediate overhead caps, with resistance standing at $101.50 – $104. Downside moves, however, continue to be actively picked up by buyers, with key support levels seen between $100 – $97 keeping the structural uptrend stable.

Overall View: While a definitive break above immediate technical barriers could invite fresh momentum buying, the energy matrix remains highly susceptible to rapid intraday swings. Traders should remain extra cautious, as heightened volatility persists amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Manage trade parameters aggressively, apply strict trailing stop-losses, and be prepared for sudden headline-driven volatility spikes near technical borders.

Aluminium Technical Outlook

MCX Aluminium (May): Directly tracking the global trend, the domestic May contract showcases an exceptionally constructive chart profile. Short-term sellers are actively grouping near the immediate overhead resistance band at ₹391 – ₹395, while long-term demand forces are waiting to absorb price soft patches at the support floor of ₹387 – ₹383.50. Technical patterns indicate that the metal may see an upmove after sustaining above the resistance zone, signaling a clean validation of its broader structural trend.

LME Aluminium (Spot): LME Aluminium continues to hum with a strong Bullish Sentiment, driven by steady warehouse drawdowns and structural green-energy infrastructure demand. The industrial metal is confidently grinding toward its upper milestones, facing immediate technical resistance standing at $3,670 – $3,700. Meanwhile, any brief profit-taking episodes are being swiftly bought into, keeping key support levels firmly established between $3,630 – $3,600.

Overall View: With the broader macro and micro elements lining up in favor of the bulls, accumulating long exposure on mild price pullbacks or breakout confirmations remains the dominant, high-probability strategy. However, because industrial commodities are highly sensitive to sudden logistics or macro shocks, traders should remain extra cautious, as heightened volatility persists amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Lock in partial profits at regular intervals and ensure trailing stops are used effectively to shield capital against unexpected intraday reversals.

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