GOLD

COMEX gold futures tumbled 2.02% on Monday, with prices dropping another 0.10% in early Tuesday trading to hover near $4,519. The downturn follows reports from Iran that two missiles struck a US Navy frigate in the Strait of Hormuz, an action Iran defended as a response to maritime security violations.This shift has led investors to wager that central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer, ultimately weighing down the non-yielding yellow metal.

SILVER

Mirroring gold’s downward trajectory, silver prices plunged by a substantial 3.42% on Monday and continued to trade lower in early sessions, hovering near $72.75. This decline is largely driven by a strengthening U.S. Dollar and intensified inflation fears triggered by the sharp escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. As surging energy costs keep the prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes on the table, investors are now pivoting their focus to critical upcoming labor data, including U.S. job openings, the ADP employment report, and the April non-farm payrolls, to gauge the next move for the economy and the Fed.

ENERGY

WTI crude oil prices surged by 2.58% to a peak of $107.46 before stabilizing near $105.13, as a direct military exchange between U.S. and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz cast serious doubt on the durability of the recent four-week ceasefire. Compounding the supply-side anxiety, the UAE confirmed a fire at its critical Fujairah oil terminal following the interception of Iranian missiles. With startof Hormuz likely to remain shuttered until a formal agreement is reached, investors remain cautious, bracing for further volatility and a potential sustained rally in energy prices.

BASE METAL

MCX copper prices dipped by 0.43% as immediate demand concerns stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict temporarily overshadowed a tightening global supply. Despite this short-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains bullish due to a critical supply chain disruption.Further bolstering the metal’s prospects is the aggressive expansion of the tech sector, with major firms signing massive agreements for data center construction.

Evening Commodity Trading Guide 05th May 2026 

Gold Technical Outlook

MCX Gold (Jun): The domestic June contract continues to run following the trend as COMEX, locking price action into a vulnerable short-term consolidation frame. Intraday upward moves are facing immediate friction at the resistance zone positioned at ₹1,50,500 – ₹1,52,200. On the downside, the primary defensive cushions are expected to form within the support zone of ₹1,49,200 – ₹1,47,600. Technical chart patterns warn that a deeper weakness in prices may continue after breaching the support zone, potentially accelerating technical liquidations.

COMEX Gold (Spot): Spot gold is displaying a Sideways to Bearish Sentiment as the unwinding of the safe-haven premium keeps the metal pinned beneath key short-term moving averages. Immediate overhead resistance is heavily concentrated near $4,600 – $4,660, acting as a firm lid on recent recovery attempts. On the flip side, critical demand cushions are holding firm near $4,530 – $4,480. Until spot prices convincingly reclaim the upper resistance barriers, sellers are likely to retain control during intraday spikes.

Overall View: With the short-term trajectory shifting into a more defensive posture, precision in trade execution is highly recommended. For short-term trading, remain cautious and avoid chasing market noise in the middle of the range, focusing instead on risk-defined entries or waiting for confirmed structural breakdowns. Conversely, for participants looking at the macroeconomic picture, this correction offers an ideal accumulation window; long-term investors can consider buying in small amounts on every dip toward the lower support bands to optimize their core long entry costs.

Silver Technical Outlook

MCX Silver (Jul): The domestic July contract is tightly tracking global trends as COMEX, maintaining a heavy technical footprint on the daily charts. Short-term rallies are hitting an immediate supply wall standing at ₹2,48,000 – ₹2,54,000, while a critical structural support band is expected lower down near ₹2,43,000 – ₹2,38,000. Chart setups indicate that a deeper weakness in prices may continue after breaching the support zone, which could unlock fresh momentum-based short-building.

COMEX Silver (Spot): Silver has shifted into a Sideways to Bearish Sentiment as a strengthening dollar and cooling industrial buyer momentum pressure the metals complex. The white metal faces prominent overhead friction, with resistance levels placed at $74.50 – $77 keeping near-term recovery surges well-contained. On the lower end, the broader demand pocket is drifting, with key supports likely around $72.80 – $70. Expect a choppy, downward-sloping consolidation until a fresh macroeconomic catalyst emerges.

Overall View: With the near-term technical bias leaning in favor of the bears, buyers must exercise high patience and execution discipline. For short-term trading, remain cautious and avoid chasing bounces prematurely. However, this sharp correction provides an ideal structural window for value hunters; long-term investors can consider buying in small amounts on every dip inside the ₹2,43,000 – ₹2,38,000 support zone to build core long exposure at improved cost averages.

Crude Oil Technical Outlook

MCX Crude Oil (May): Concurrently tracking the global trend, the domestic May contract reflects a highly constructive technical footprint. Initial recovery attempts face an immediate barrier at the resistance band of ₹10,020 – ₹10,250, while a very resilient defensive layer is waiting lower down at the support levels of ₹9,800 – ₹9,550. The current setup shifts the preferred intraday strategy to a tactical “Buy on Dips” near primary technical floors.

NYMEX Crude Oil (Spot): WTI Crude Oil has climbed into a confident Sideways to Bullish Sentiment, fueled by tightening global inventory stock dynamics and localized supply risks. Rallies are finding strong momentum, with immediate overhead resistance now standing at $105 – $107.50. On the downside, pullbacks are being aggressively defended by buyers, with key support levels firmly established between $103 – $100, keeping the broader structural uptrend fiercely intact.

Overall View: The broader macroeconomic and technical setups remain heavily skewed in favor of the bulls, making long positions on minor pullbacks the ideal blueprint. However, because heightened volatility persists across the energy complex amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, traders must protect capital diligently. Market participants should remain extra cautious, lock in profits at regular technical intervals, and rely on strict trailing stop-losses to guard against sudden, headline-driven intraday reversals.

Aluminium Technical Outlook

MCX Aluminium (May): Directly tracking the global trend, the domestic May contract displays an increasingly robust structural footprint. Short-term sellers are actively clustering near the overhead resistance band at ₹376 – ₹380, while solid technical support rests lower down at ₹373 – ₹369. Chart structures imply that the light industrial metal may see an upmove after sustaining above the Resistance zone, potentially sparking a sharp momentum breakout.

LME Aluminium (Spot): LME Aluminium continues to exhibit a resilient Sideways to Bullish Sentiment, taking a brief technical breather right underneath major overhead technical barriers. Underlying physical demand and steady warehouse data continue to reinforce the asset. Immediate resistance stands at $3,590 – $3,635, while minor corrective pullbacks are being eagerly absorbed by buyers, keeping key support levels firmly established between $3,540 – $3,500.

Overall View: The technical layout remains structurally tilted in favor of the bulls, making a “buy on dips or breakout acceleration” the preferred market playbook. A clean, consecutive close above the overhead resistance zone could trigger an extensive short-covering rally. However, since heightened volatility persists across the base metals complex due to fluid macro conditions and ongoing geopolitical tensions, traders should remain extra cautious and practice tight risk management.

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