GOLD

After reaching a peak of $4773.58 the previous day, COMEX gold prices have pulled back by 0.51% to trade near $4690.99. This decline is largely driven by April’s US consumer inflation data, which climbed to 3.8%, exceeding market forecasts and hitting a one-year high due to rising energy costs linked to Middle East tensions. These hotter-thanexpected figures have dampened expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, weighing on the metal’s appeal. Domestically, gold faces additional pressure as import duties were hiked from 6% to 15%, a strategic move by the government to reduce overseas purchases and preserve foreign exchange reserves.

SILVER

COMEX Silver prices continued to surge upward and touched the high of $87.8040, level last seen on 11 march 2026, outperforming other precious metals amid an improving outlook for industrial demand.However, prices have since retraced to approximately $86.36 following the release of higher-than-anticipated US inflation data, which reached 3.8% in April. This inflationary pressure is further compounded by a three-session rally in oil prices, driven by a lack of progress in diplomatic efforts to resolve the ongoing US-Iran conflict. As the geopolitical situation keeps energy costs high and inflation risks elevated, silver’s upward momentum remains capped by the prospect of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

ENERGY

WTI crude oil prices remain elevated near the $100 mark, underpinned by intensifying US-Iran tensions and market anxiety surrounding a fragile ceasefire. Investors are closely monitoring geopolitical developments as President Trump travels to China for a high-stakes summit with President Xi Jinping, which could influence global trade dynamics. Furthermore, crude prices continue to see significant support from the dimming prospects of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime artery for roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

BASE METAL

MCX copper prices surged to test the 1293.93 level on Tuesday, bolstered by robust demand from China and intensifying supply-side risks. Despite the ongoing regional conflict, China’s industrial activity has remained resilient, significantly boosting market sentiment for the base metal. This bullish outlook is further amplified by the global AI stock rally, which has heightened expectations for massive infrastructure investment in data centers. With demand accelerating and concerns over a structural supply crunch mounting, copper prices continue to find strong support at these elevated levels.

Evening Commodity Trading Guide 13th May 2026 

Gold Technical Outlook

MCX Gold (Jun): The domestic June contract is displaying an aggressive decoupling, flashing a bullish sentiment not in line with COMEX. While global spot markets fluctuate, local prices have surged dramatically. Immediate overhead resistance is now positioned at ₹1,64,000 – ₹1,66,800, while the protective support zone rests lower down between ₹1,60,500 – ₹1,58,000. Volatility is high in the domestic market due to Indian government tax changes, and the RSI is also sitting deep in the overbought zone. Consequently, market participants must anticipate that it might be possible we can see profit booking from a higher level, so be extra cautious.

COMEX Gold (Spot): Spot gold continues to wander through a macro tug-of-war, exhibiting a Mixed Sentiment. While local conditions spike domestic contracts, global spot prices face a highly defined technical ceiling. Immediate resistance is heavily concentrated near $4,725 – $4,775, acting as a temporary lid on recent recovery attempts. Meanwhile, the downside remains relatively insulated from catastrophic breakdowns, with key support levels seen near $4,680 – $4,640.

Overall View: The stark divergence between domestic policy tailwinds and global spot charts requires an ultra-disciplined approach. For short-term trading, remain cautious and avoid chasing vertical daily spikes blindly given the severe overbought momentum parameters. However, for those looking at long-term asset allocation, look past the short-term domestic noise; long-term investors can consider buying in small amounts on every dip inside the primary structural support zones to build core exposure systematically.

Silver Technical Outlook

MCX Silver (Jul): The domestic July contract has broken into historic pricing territory, keeping its broader sentiments in line with COMEX but amplified by local variables. Looking at the chart layout, major overhead resistance now stands at a massive ₹3,00,000 – ₹3,10,000 zone. On the downside, initial cushions are expected near ₹2,94,000 – ₹2,83,000. Just like its yellow counterpart, volatility is high in the domestic market due to Indian government tax changes, and the RSI is also in the overbought zone. Traders must accept that it might be possible we can see profit booking from a higher level, so be extra cautious.

COMEX Silver (Spot): Spot silver continues to flash a very confident and aggressive Bullish Sentiment globally, powered by structural supply anxieties and industrial demand. The white metal is actively pushing its technical boundaries, with overhead resistance levels placed at $88 – $90. Meanwhile, downside risk remains strongly mitigated by eager underlying buyers, keeping primary technical supports likely around $86 – $83.

Overall View: While the global backdrop for silver remains fundamentally and technically robust, the local price structure is highly extended due to fiscal shifts. For short-term trading, remain cautious and utilize tight trailing stop-losses to hedge against a sudden, swift cooling-off period. For patient, strategic capital, this parabolic move recommends waiting for healthy operational discounts; long-term investors can consider buying in small amounts on every dip down toward structural baselines to optimize entry costs over the long haul.

Crude Oil Technical Outlook

MCX Crude Oil (May): Concurrently tracking the global trend, the domestic May contract reflects a highly reactive and optimistic technical footprint. Intraday upward moves are currently testing a strong line of sellers, with resistance mapped at ₹9,950 – ₹10,120. Conversely, downside corrections are being picked up by bulls near the support levels of ₹9,680 – ₹9,500. Chart configurations indicate that the energy asset may see an upmove after sustaining above the resistance zone, potentially unlocking a fresh directional extension.

NYMEX Crude Oil (Spot): WTI Crude Oil has reclaimed a definitive Bullish Sentiment as localized supply risks, global inventory drops, and shipping bottlenecks combine to drive prices higher. Sellers are largely on the defensive, with immediate overhead resistance standing between $103 – $106. On the flip side, strong technical cushions continue to catch any brief profit-taking, with key support levels seen between $100 – $97.

Overall View: The broader energy matrix remains structurally tilted in favor of the bulls, making momentum continuation or buying on minor pullbacks the preferred blueprint. Nonetheless, global energy flows remain highly sensitive to non-technical headlines. Traders should remain extra cautious, as heightened volatility persists amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Keep position sizes strictly managed and rely on robust risk parameters near immediate boundary thresholds.

Aluminium Technical Outlook

MCX Aluminium (May): Directly tracking the global trend, the domestic May contract displays an incredibly strong, high-momentum chart structure. Short-term sellers are actively clustering near the overhead technical resistance band at ₹389 – ₹396, while an ironclad base of physical and technical demand waits to absorb any minor price soft patches at the support floor of ₹384.50 – ₹378. The preferred near-term blueprint remains a confident “Buy on Dips”.

LME Aluminium (Spot): LME Aluminium continues to exhibit a powerful Bullish Sentiment, fueled by tightening supply controls and robust global light-metal demand. The industrial metal is actively marching toward multi-month milestones, facing immediate technical resistance standing at $3,670 – $3,700. Meanwhile, any brief corrective pauses are being aggressively bought into, keeping key support levels firmly established between $3,630 – $3,600.

Overall View: With the technical layout heavily biased to the upside across both global and domestic bourses, accumulating long exposure on brief price retracements remains a high-probability strategy. However, because macro variables and trade logistics remain highly fluid, traders should remain extra cautious, as heightened volatility persists amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Lock in partial profits at regular technical intervals and protect trading capital with strict risk management rules.

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